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Home > News > Recession fears recede in Germany but the global economy is still fragile

Recession fears recede in Germany but the global economy is still fragile


Reading guidance:

Investors have a heap of economic data to sort through on Thursday.

First up, China: Retailsales in China grew 7.2% in October compared to a year prior, below the 7.9% increase expected by analysts polled by Refinitiv. Industrial output, meanwhile, grew 4.7%, which was also weaker than anticipated.

"Downward pressure has continued to increase on the economy," China's national statistical authority said in a statement.

China's massive economy is already growing at the slowest pace since 1992, but signs of further deterioration helped push stocks down in Asia. The silver lining?

"Looking through all the volatility and base effects, we see a picture of fragile stabilisation, of weak growth, rather than another sharp deceleration," economists at Societe Generale said in a research note.

And in Europe: At first glance, there was better news out of Germany.

Europe's largest economy narrowly avoided a recession in the third quarter, expanding by 0.1% over the previous three-month period. Still, the outlook for Germany remains poor.

Here's what Andrew Kenningham, chief Europe economist at Capital Economics, gleaned from the data:

"The trivial increase in GDP in Q3 means that Germany has narrowly averted a technical recession. But second-quarter GDP fell more than previously thought, and we think the economy will probably contract slightly next year -- so a recession may have been postponed rather than avoided altogether," he said.